To ensure that all people and organizations can keep pace with those changes, we need to first understand what the 2030 digital world will entail. Through driver mapping—a technique that analyzes secondary research sources for megatrends and drivers that will impact our subject area—we identified the following driving forces that will shape Canada’s digital economy and society over the next decade,40 and that policymakers and business leaders must keep in mind:
Big tech We expect the technology sector will become increasingly consolidated over the next decade, with big tech companies occupying an ever-larger market share and expanding into other sectors, such as health care, financial services, and education. Not only will this have enormous implications for how personal data is used and how people access critical services, it will also mean that smaller companies will face growing barriers to success in these technology-dominated sectors.
Data ownership and protection Big tech consolidation, along with the growing monetization of personal data, means that data ownership and protection will be a key digital battleground by 2030. It will be increasingly critical that all Canadians understand their rights when it comes to data, while businesses will have to adapt to more stringent regulations around how data can be collected, used, and shared.
Telecommunications The telecommunications sector will continue to consolidate in the coming decade, leading to tightened oversight from regulators and increased pressure from the public for more affordable broadband options. These companies will be at the forefront of efforts to expand internet access to hard-to-reach areas, with this complex policy area playing a crucial role in securing digital access for all people in Canada.
Digital economy E-commerce, digital service delivery, the digitization of money, and the introduction of digital identity will continue to expand through to 2030. From retail to health care to education to government services, digital advancement will become a must-have rather than a nice-to-have, to guarantee the success of organizations.
Digital skills gap The growth of the digital economy means that employers across sectors will demand a higher minimum of digital knowledge from their workers in 2030. The widening digital skills gap in many sectors shows that Canadians’ education will have to incorporate such skills earlier on, while lifelong learning will have to become the norm to address a continual need to upskill.
Technological risks and biases Growing technological risks—such as those related to algorithmic bias, surveillance, cyberattacks, and online hate and cyberviolence—will require people to learn digital safety skills earlier in life. Similarly, more businesses in more sectors will have to protect against increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks which will require them to invest in new types of expertise, such as ethical artificial intelligence practices.
These drivers and others—many of which are longstanding, such as the consolidation of the technology and telecommunications sectors—will shape how Canada’s digital world unfolds over the next decade. Given the changes the country’s digital landscape will undergo, we know that the access, participation, and ecosystem requirements needed to succeed in 2030 will be dramatically different than they are today—and meeting them will require bold action today to prepare for that future.
At a minimum, what will people need to thrive in 2030 in terms of access to the digital world? As new forms of connectivity are rolled out across the country, who is still being left behind? What digital services and content will be considered essential, and how will we ensure that people don’t fall through the cracks as we seek to ensure equitable digital access for all?
What minimum access to the digital world will be necessary for organizations to thrive over the coming decade? What digital systems, tools, and software applications will be needed by all the sectors to adapt to the increasingly digital world?
What threshold of information literacy and digital skills will be needed across the workforce? What digital skills will be needed for people to feel safe, secure, and confident navigating an increasingly digital economy and society? And how will we ensure that all people in Canada have access to a robust digital literacy education that supports the development of these skills?
What organizational abilities will be critical in 2030 to participate in the digital economy? How will business models, organizational cultures, operational resources, and training need to change to compete in the digital world? And what barriers will prevent businesses of all sizes from participating in the digital economy?
Other than access and participation, what remaining barriers do Canadians face? What systemic processes and regulations have the effect of excluding certain groups and thus will have to be dismantled to ensure all Canadians can succeed? And how can governments and businesses ensure that people’s rights are balanced with the need to digitalize?
What broader policy and regulatory changes will have to occur to ensure more organizations can thrive in the digital economy—not just the largest and most technologically advanced among them? How must regulations evolve to allow organizations to protect people’s privacy while using their data? How will governments themselves have to transform to reflect the digitalization of society in 2030?
